Meet the Nation's Most Statistically Incredible Team - The University of Washington Huskies

University of Washington football fans came up on the short end of the stick Saturday (10-13-07) when the Arizona State Sun Devils blew into Seattle and extended their winning streak to 7 with a 44-20 second half victory. The Sun Devils outscored Washington in the third quarter 21-0 and in the second half 31-3, and it is a good thing because if the game had ended at the half, Washington would have won 17-13.

Therein lies the challenge of the youthful, inexperienced Washington Huskies: they played a terrible 3rd quarter and have not yet learned how to win games.

This statistic would not mean much unless you know that:

Washington led then No. 10-ranked Ohio State 7-3 at the half and lost 33-14 in its 3rd game. It was tied with then No. 27-rated UCLA 10-10 at the half and lost 44-31 in its 4th game.

Washington led then No. 1-ranked Southern Cal 17-14 at the half and lost 27-24 in its 5th game. They led then No. 12-ranked Arizona State 17-13 at the half and lost 44-20 in its 6th game.

You better believe that Sun Devil Coach Dennis Erickson was more than sweating bullets after watching redshirt freshman quarterback Jake Locker scamper for a 32-yard touchdown run with 4:11 to go in the first half, giving Washington its 17-13 lead.

Do Husky fans realize that if each of these games ended at the half, Washington's record would be 5-0-1 rather than 2-4? Washington would have an unbeaten record after polishing off Syracuse 42-12 in an away game and upsetting then No. 22-ranked Boise State 24-10 in its first two games.

Please, do not be sophomoric (as in sometimes moronic) and remind me that a game lasts 60 minutes and only the final score counts. To do so would ignore the point I am making. You could with fairness make the point that the Huskies have been tripping over themselves coming out of the locker room to start the second half of their last 4 games.

Why this has been happening leaves Coach Ty Willingham clueless. He is quoted in the Tacoma News Tribune (10-14-07 edition) as saying, "It's obviously a difficult thing to talk about because I don't have a solution to it."

Willingham, a man of heretofore impeccable standards and integrity, is also honest. Less than 1% of all college football coaches would not publicly repeat Willingham's admission.

One thing is for sure: Whatever Willingham and his coaching staff members are saying or not saying to Husky players at halftime, it is not working worth a crap and needs to be changed.

Do not tell me that the same Husky players who might play above their head with guts and enthusiasm in the first half go brain dead and unfeeling during the second half. I would love to be a bee on the wall in Washington's locker room at halftime and see what-if any-stinging comments are made. As a certified Monday morning quarterback and coach, this would be the first words out of my mouth at halftime during the Arizona State game:

"Let me be the first to congratulate you on a phenomenal first half. Arizona State made some mistakes in the first half and we did too, but you are leading the unbeaten and No. 12-ranked team in the country at halftime, 17-13.

"Some people would say that the Sun Devils have more talent on their team than we do, but we lead at the half, 17-13.

"Others would say that the Sun Devils have an unbeaten record and our record is 2-3, but we lead at the half, 17-13.

"Still others would say that the Sun Devils are ranked No. 12 in the country and since we are not ranked in the Top 25, they will win this game, but we lead at the half, 17-13.

"Now, we are going to quickly hand everyone a slip of paper and a pen, and by secret ballot I want you to quickly write down which player you think is the leader of this team."

After the ballots are immediately collected and Jake Locker's name is on every ballot or almost every ballot, I would say this:

"Jake, you may be a redshirt freshman but your teammates believe you are the leader of the Washington Husky football team.

"I want you, Jake, to get up right now and tell the coaching staff and your fellow teammates why we can win the second half of this game, how we are going to do it, and what it will take to do it."

I would then, as the head coach, sit down, shut up and listen. After Jake is done with whatever he says, I would ask any other player who received a vote as THE team leader to get up and do the same thing.

Let the players convince themselves and believe they can do in the second half what they did in the first half: outscore the opponent. Do that and Washington upsets its opponent.

Now, why is Washington the nation's most statistically incredible team?

1) The Huskies are rated No. 41 in the Sagarin Ratings.

2) Their current record is 2-4.

3) They are rated No. 1 for having played-for the 4th consecutive week-the toughest schedule among all 242 Division I-A and 1-AA teams.

4) There is not another team among Sagarin's first 40 rated teams with less than 4 wins.

5) The next highest rated Sagarin team with only 2 wins is No. 60 North Carolina at 2-5.

6) The Huskies, as Sagarin's 41st best rated team in the nation, are ahead of No. 42 Alabama (5-2), No. 44 Wisconsin (5-2 and ranked No. 5 in the AP Poll just two weeks ago), No. 46 Louisville (4-3), No. 48 Texas A&M (5-2), No. 51 Air Force (5-2), and No. 52 Indiana (5-2). Not too shabby, as the former Opera Man (Adam Sandler) would say on Saturday Night Live.

7) The highest rated team with the same 2-4 record as Washington is Stanford at No. 68. Stanford has played the 4th toughest schedule in the country.

8) North Carolina, which has a 2-5 record, is rated No. 60. The Tar Heels have played the 3rd toughest schedule through college football's week 7.

I know, now you wonder who has played the 2nd toughest schedule. It is 1-6 Notre Dame. I expect the Huskies to lose against Oregon (hopefully not by 53-7 like cross-state rival Washington State) and California. I predicted this two weeks ago on October 3.

I also predicted on October 3 that Washington would beat (in order) Arizona, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State and Hawaii, finishing the year at 7-6. Hang on, Husky fans, the best is yet to come.

Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley

Ed Bagley's Blog Publishes Original Articles with Analysis and Commentary on 5 Subjects: Sports, Movie Reviews, Lessons in Life, Jobs and Careers, and Internet Marketing. My intention is to inform, educate, delight and motivate you the reader.

Read my 11 Washington Husky articles including "Anatomy of a Team on the Rise: Washington Will Get Over Freshmanitis and Really Thrive" and "College Football Mayhem: Flagrant Helmet-to-Helmet Shots Need to Stop Before Someone Gets Killed".

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Last Season's Final Statistics Show How the Nation's Top Five Teams Can Be Beat

It is not often when the coaches and the media agree on their opinion of who should be in the preseason Top 25 college football polls, but this year at least their Top 5 picks are mirror images-Florida (1), Texas (2), Oklahoma (3), Southern California (4) and Alabama (5).

Of a possible 60 first-place votes in the media's AP Top 25 Poll, Florida collected 58 votes and Texas 2, setting a record (96+%) for the most first-place votes since the poll was first started in 1950, long before there were ever Bowl Championship Series (BCS) games.

Florida is such an overwhelming favorite that one might think there is no need to play the games this year, since the Gators will probably run the table (go unbeaten). This, of course, is sheer nonsense.

Florida won the National Championship for the 2006 and 2008 seasons and, if it repeats during 2009, the Gators would become only the second team to do so since Nebraska won the National Championship 3 out of 4 years, winning the title outright in 1994 and 1995, and splitting the title in 1997.

However, going unbeaten to do so is entirely another matter. It is tough to go undefeated in a major conference, and then win the national title.

For openers, only one team (Utah at 13-0) went undefeated last season, and that happened because Utah does not play in a major conference. It the Utes played in the SEC, Pacific 10, Big 12 or Big Ten Conferences, there is no way they would be undefeated.

Florida, Southern Cal and Texas all lost a game last season. Oklahoma and Alabama were beaten twice.

You may be interested to know that the best team in the nation statistically last year was not Florida, which won the National Championship by beating Oklahoma 24-14, but rather Southern Cal. That's right, USC. Maybe that is why Florida won; they were playing Oklahoma and not Southern Cal for the title.

Oklahoma had a great offensive team-ranking 1st nationally in scoring (51+ points), 3rd in passing offense (349+ yards per game) and 3rd in total offense (547+), but the Sooner defense was nothing to get excited about. They were 99th in pass defense, 68th in total defense and 58th scoring defense. There are only 119 BCS (Division 1-A) teams.

Florida's pass defense was ranked 20th, and the Gators held Oklahoma to only 14 points, despite Oklahoma having the No. 1 scoring offense in the country. Shoot, the Sooners scored 51 points a game but gave up 24 a game, exactly what Florida scored to win the title. The Gators were ranked 4th in scoring defense, giving up only 13 (12.93) points a game. That shows you how accurate averaged statistics can be over the course of a season.

Texas was horrific in passing defense, ranking 104th of 119 teams. You may recall that Texas Tech beat Texas last year 39-33 on a pass play by NFL first-round pick Michael Crabtree. Texas A&M got swamped by Texas last year 49-9, in part because Texas A&M's passing defense was ranked 95th, only slightly better than Texas, which had the 7th best passing offense.

Alabama was 7th in scoring offense last year, but its passing offense was 97th (yikes) and its total offense was only 63rd. The Crimson Tide defense won most of their games, ranking 2nd in rushing defense, 3rd in total defense and 7th in scoring defense. Sounds a whole lot like their coach Nick Seban.

So what is the big deal with Southern Cal? Well, its offense was pretty balanced, ranking 22nd in rushing, passing and scoring. The defense was the best in the nation, ranking 1st in passing defense and 1st in scoring defense, 2nd in total defense, and 5th in rushing defense.

Think about it, leading the nation in 2 defensive categories and being among the top 5 in rushing and passing defense, total defense and scoring defense. USC's one loss came on the road at Oregon State, 27-21.

Was USC unfairly penalized by the pollsters when selecting the BCS title game participants? I think so. Heck, Alabama lost 31-20 to Florida on the road, so the Gators deserved a shot.

But Oklahoma? Get real. The Sooners lost to Texas at home, 45-35. Just the score of the game itself makes you shiver, 80 points between them, as opposed to 48 points between USC and Oregon State, and USC was on the road. If Oklahoma thinks Oregon State (9-4 last year) was a pushover, they should play the Beavers at home, where they were 5-1, losing only to Oregon.

So what does it all mean? Well, Oklahoma was the best offensive team in the country last year, and Southern Cal was the best defensive team; there is no argument when you look at the statistics.

Despite being the best offensive team in the country, Oklahoma could not beat Florida, losing 24-14. Southern Cal, which dispatched No. 6 Penn State 31-16, in the BCS Rose Bowl Game, might well have held Florida to fewer than 24 points. We will never know.

What we do know is that Southern Cal had a better passing offense, a more balanced offense, and a much better passing defense than Florida.

There is a reason why the Sagarin College Football Ratings show Southern Cal, not Florida, as the top team in its 2009 preseason poll. That reason is because the ratings are based on last year's actual statistics and results, not opinion.

As I see it, Florida was fortunate that it faced Oklahoma, which has lost 4 of its last 5 BCS games. In other words, lame like Ohio State, which has lost two straight BCS National Championship Games to Florida and LSU in 2006 and 2007, and then lost again to Texas in its BCS game last year.

Let's just say it-the East Coast bias among coaches and media is really bad. Two factors drive this inequity. One is population as 58% of the people (approximately 175 of 300 million) live on the East Coast. The second is the time difference as the West Coast is 3 hours behind the East Coast.

When media types get done watching football games Saturday around 10:30 p.m. EST, key games are just beginning on the West Coast and are never seen by poll voters. They are overwhelmed with watching East Coast football, and remain a servant slave to it.

If the powers to be had any size grapefruits at all, when Florida got rid of Oklahoma, their next assignment for the national title should have been Southern Cal, and then we would have seen the rubber hit the road.

Copyright © 2009 Ed Bagley

Read more of my football coverage, including:

"Back-to-Back Winning Seasons and Bowl Appearances Say Michigan State Is Back"
"Look for Steve Sarkisian to Turn Around Washington's Woeful Football Program"
"Not Being Selected Among the Top 25 in the Preseason Coaches' Poll Is the Kiss of Death - You Have No BCS Title Shot"
Find Out Which Division 1 School Had the Worst Football Team in 2008.
Find Out Which Division 1 School Had the Worst Coaching Staff in 2008.
Individual Articles on All 34 of College Football's 2008 Bowl Games.
15 Weekly Wrap-Up Articles on College Football's 2008 Regular Season Games.
Articles on the Washington Huskies (0-12) 2008 Football Season.
Articles on the Michigan State Spartans (9-4) 2008 Football Season.
Articles on College Football's 2007 Regular Season and Bowl Games.

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