Saturday, October 16, 2010

NFL Football Handicapping Week 4 Preview

We begin this week again with the disappointing San Francisco 49ers. The most popular pick to win the NFC West have dropped their first three games and are heading into Atlanta to face a team that beat the defending champion Saints in overtime last week. The Falcons are confident, and favored by 6.5 points, but the Niners must be starving for a win by now. We'll see if San Francisco can finally live up to at least a little bit of the pre-season hype and get themselves into the win column, or if they're really heading down the long-winless road paved by the 2009 Tennessee Titans.

In a heavyweight battle every defensive fan loves to watch, the hard hitting Baltimore Ravens are making their annual trek into Heinz field to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are 3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread and looking to go to 4-0 for the first time in 31 years. They're favored by one point for two reasons: their defense and they're home. Meanwhile the Ravens are playing their usual brand of football, holding opponents to only 244 yards a game so far this season. This should be a ground battle, with plenty of hobbled players by game's end.

Philly fans and football handicapping services will be looking for two things out of Week Four: Michael Vick to run all over the Redskins and Donovan McNabb to be run out of town with a loss. Since taking over at quarterback, Vick has thrown for 575 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions. Washington started out with a nice win over the Cowboys, but have since lost a heartbreaker to the Texans and an unsettling defeat at the Rams. The Redskins will be fired up to show that they're better than their 1-2 record, not happy about being a 7 point dog, and that the Eagles franchise made a big mistake by trading a star to a division rival.

In a battle of "wow, they're better than I thought they'd be" teams, the Seahawks go on the road this week as the favorite. Granted the game is at St. Louis, but baby steps Seahawks fans. Your team is a road favorite! Just soak that in for a minute. That said, they are only a one point favorite against a much improved Rams team that won their first home game in 14 months last week. Sam Bradford does have 5 interceptions, but he's learning quickly and last week he completed 62% of his passes. It's not going to happen overnight, but it seems clear that St. Louis has a legitimate future star on their roster. If Bradford can get hot against a Seattle defense that gave up 527 yards to San Diego last week, we may have a shootout on our hands.

At the new Meadowlands, the 3-0 Bears face off against the 1-2 Giants. Many people feel the Giants have the most talented defense in football. Many of the same people feel that Chicago is the worst 3-0 team in years. So, good team struggling versus overrated team on the road equals...well, who knows. Sure, the Bears should have lost to the lowly Lions, but they stomped the Cowboys and played smart and efficient in beating the Packers. And the Giants may be talented, but rumors have been swirling all week in New York about whether Tom Coughlin has lost control of the team. Is this the week the Giants finally come together and the Bears finally fall apart? We'll see.

Monday night features Tom Brady and the New England Patriots heading southbound to take on the Miami Dolphins in a battle of division leaders. As usual, Brady has carried whatever load the team needs him to shoulder. He's already thrown for 758 yards and 8 touchdowns. Chad Henne looked like he's making headway with his new star receiver Brandon Marshall. Henne hit Marshall for 166 of his career high 363 yards and expects to do more of the same this week against a beaten up Patriots secondary. The spread opened at even and has since moved to the Pats by one. Two guarantees on this game: that spread will move again before Monday and this will shape up to be one of the best games of the week.




Tim Manson is an avid sports fan and football enthusiast that has been moonlighting as a freelance sports writer for the past four years. Tim is also an upcoming star in the football handicapping industry who lives in Los Angeles, CA with his wife and two kids were he enjoys playing football as well as hiking and sailing.

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