Wednesday, January 6, 2010

College Football Handicapping Picks Week 1 Part 1

This article contains only our free plays of the week. Let Year 11 of our term as handicapping Kings commence. Enjoy!

ACC

Virginia Tech (-9.5) VS. EAST CAROLINA: Virginia Tech has been one of the most consistently solid football teams in the nation the last five plus years and that should continue again this year as they will beat up on a weak ACC. First up is an East Carolina team that actually was decent last year. The Pirates are very good on both lines but losing RB Chris Johnson will hurt the offense tremendously. Tech has their own offensive questions marks with QB's Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor vying to be the number one passer. They also return only four starters on defense but this team always churns out top units on that side of the field and should do so again. This has the makings of a very sloppy game as both teams try to find some rhythm on offense. East Carolina is a very good underdog under coach Skip Holtz as they are 17-6 ATS in that predicament. The final score should be right around that number as we figure on a 27-17 score so our advice is to stay clear. THE PICK: PASS

SOUTH CAROLINA (-13.5) VS. NC State: South Carolina once again will attempt to get Da'Ball Coach back into the spotlight with one of the best defensive units in the country. 10 starters are back to a unit that was very good last year despite injuries to LB Jasper Brinkley and CB Captain Munnerlyn. The key is for QB Chris Smelly to take the next step this year and not hold onto the ball like he did at times last season. The running game is solid and if Smelly can become a downfield threat, then great things could be in store for this group. NC State on the other hand is a team that is still trying to work out the kinks after struggling early in losing their first five games of 2007 under coach Tom O'Brien. They rebounded to win four of six but there are still issues in the running game and the offensive line. This doesn't bode well for redshirt freshman QB Russell Wilson who needs all the help he can get against Spurrier's solid D. The only problem is the fact the Gamecocks qualify in some negative betting angles so be careful with the backdoor cover. Slight endorsement to South Carolina here. THE PICK: South Carolina (-13.5)

Wake Forest (-12) VS. BAYLOR******BEST BET

USC (-19.5) VS. VIRGINIA******STRONG OPINION

Boston College (-9.5) VS. Kent State: The Eagles of Boston College could be overlooked this season after losing QB Matt Ryan to the NFL but this team still has a very solid defense to fall back on. LB Brian Toal and DT B.J. Raji retun after sitting out last season and they should form the anchor for their unit. Chris Crane takes over at QB and there will surely be some growing pains along the way but BC returns most of their receiving unit which will help early on. For Kent State, their big advantage is at the QB position with Julian Edelman who will team with RB Eugene Jarvis to eat up large chunks of yards on the ground. The Golden Flashes will need to run so they can keep a less than decent defense off the field. BC has a solid run defense which should be enough to sway the edge in their favor and allow Crane the opportunity to use his solid receiving corps to put up points. The on-field scenarios all favor BC and we expect them to get off to a good start here. THE PICK: Boston College (-9.5)

Clemson (-5) VS. Alabama (at Cleveland)*******STRONG OPINION

PITTSBURGH (-12.5) VS. Bowling Green*****BEST BET

NORTHWESTERN (-11.5) VS. Syracuse: This is a tough game to call as both teams struggled mightily last season, especially Syracuse. The Orange are giving head coach Greg Robinson one more shot to right the ship but once again looks to be undermined by one of the worst defenses in D-1. Northwestern has their own issues on defense so expect a high scoring game in this one. The key here is that the Wildcats are 0-5 ATS as a home favorite under coach Pat Fitzgerald. This is too many point to lay between two bad teams who can score. THE PICK: Syracuse (+11.5)

LOUISVILLE (-3.5) VS. Kentucky: This is another game that is giving us headaches as both teams have major question marks coming into the season. For Louisville, there is a huge hole in the receiving corps which will make things tough for new QB Hunter Cantwell. Cantwell has all the physical tools to succeed but not having any help on the perimeter will cause the offense to stall early. For Kentucky, the Wildcats must move on from the Andre Woodson era and they will try to do so with Mike Hartline who like Cantwell, has the physical attributes to be good. Unlike Cantwell however, Kentucky boasts a nice crop of WR's. The difference here is that Kentucky has the look of a better than average defense and that will be key here against a green opposing QB with little receiver help. If Kentucky were home this would be a slam dunk pick but the road angle plays against them somewhat. Ideally you should avoid this game but if you must, than take the points based on the fundamental angles favoring the road team here. THE PICK: Kentucky (+3.5)

RUTGERS (-5.5) VS. Fresno State*******STRONG OPINION

BIG 10

WISCONSIN (-26.5) VS. Akron: This is a huge spread for Wisconsin here at home against an Akron team that was done in by a pathetic offense. QB Chris Jacquemain has much more to work with this season however so some improvement is sure to result. I think the biggest problem the Zips will have is on defense, specifically the run defense. Akron is undersized on the D-Line and will have major trouble with a Wisconsin team that loves nothing but to cram the ball down your throat. The passing game will struggle however as both potential starters Allan Evridge and Justin Scherer dont do much to impress. Based on that notion, it is very difficult to support giving up that many points to anyone when your passing game looks to be shoddy, especially early on. Take the points. THE PICK: Akron (+26.5)

INDIANA (-20.5) VS. Western Kentucky******STRONG OPINION.

MICHIGAN (-3.5) VS. Utah: Utah is being totally disrespected here as this was quietly one of the better teams last season. The Utes won 8 of their last 9 and look to take another step forward this season behind the play of QB Brian Johnson. Both defenses grade out about the same but the major point to consider here is the fact that the Wolverines are breaking in both a new coach in Rich Rodriguez and a new offensive system which focused on a whole lot more running and much less passing. Rodriguez is almost forcing this offense on a unit that doesn't have the personnel to fit it and that could spell doom against a very solid Utah team. This game is a huge bargain and you should take the points and run. Only reason this is not a BEST BET is the lack of a fundamental or strategic indicator favoring the home team but its still a solid play. THE PICK: Utah (+3.5)

MINNESOTA (-8) VS. Northern Illinois: Northern Illinois returns 21 starters to a team that brings in a new coach in Jerry Kill which should do wonders for a fast start. NIU struggled badly last year but they were incredibly hurt by turnovers more than anything. This team has talent however and if they limit the huge mistakes that cost them last year, combined with a year of maturity, Northern Illinois could shock some. The boost from a new coach with so many returning starters is always a betting positive and this is a very solid play against a Golden Gophers unit that struggled terribly on defense last year. THE PICK: Northern Illinois (+8)

CALIFORNIA (-4.5) VS. Michigan State*******BEST BET

MISSOURI (-8.5) VS. Illinois (at St. Louis)

BIG 12

Oklahoma State (-7) VS. WASHINGTON STATE: This has the makings of a very high scoring game as both offenses have major firepower to expose less than sterling defenses on both sides. For Oklahoma State, the issue every year seems to be the high powered offense covering for a ragged defense. That looks to be the same situation this year. For Washington State, new coach Paul Wulff brings a no-nonsense attitude to the club and should bring some improvement across the board. The key for them will be the development of QB Gary Rogers who takes over for Alex Brink. A solid group of receivers led by Brandon Gibson should help in that regard and points should be there for the taking in this battle. The line is just too high for an Oklahoma State defense to be giving to any team and so the smart play is to take the points and run. THE PICK: Washington State (+7)

TEXAS A @ M (-20) VS. Arkansas State: The Aggies have the look of a very solid defensive unit this year which will help against a potentially explosive Arkansas State rushing attack. RB Reggie Arnold has two 1,000 season to his credit and he is a handful for anyone, let along the lesser defenses in the Sun Belt. A @ M has a very good defensive secondary which is key here as the Aggies will be able to send extra defenders to the line to stop Arnold. Their issue is on offense as new coach Mike Sherman will try and make QB Stephen McGee a passing QB and not a running one. I question his talent to accomplish such a transition and so there could be major struggles early on putting up points. Arkansas State has the better offense and so the 20 point head start makes them the solid play in this game. THE PICK: Arkansas State (+20)

NEBRASKA (-14) VS. Western Michigan: Western Michigan's strength lies in its defense which returns 10 starters this year and they always have the ability to get after the QB. On offense, QB Tim Hiller is coming off a poor season but the help is their in the wideout corps led by Jamarko Simmons. It would be even better for Tiller if he had more support in the run game but that looks to a problem again this year. For Nebraska, new coach Bo Pelini takes over for Bill Callahan and that certainly spells change all around. Pelini is a defense guy first and so expect more of an improvement on that side of the ball. Joe Ganz is a talented passer however and the potential is there for plenty of points to be put up at a good rate. The boost from the coaching change and the fact they are playing at home should give the Cornhuskers a significant emotional edge and so the right call is to pay the points here. THE PICK: Nebraska (-14)




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